While home price growth has been nearly flat in the U.S. this winter, prices are still expected to increase by 3.6% by January 2026, according to the March home price report from CoreLogic.
January home prices were up 3.3% over a 12-month period, but the month-over-month price increase was virtually flat at 0.04%. The static prices, however, aren’t expected to last. CoreLogic expects prices to increase later in the year but emphasizes that price growth will be uneven and there will be “stark differences between regions.”
The Northeast home prices in January have remained relatively strong, while the Mountain West is showing weakness and Hawaii is experiencing price declines of 4.4%.
CoreLogic’s economists expect further price deceleration in 2025, although recent improvements in mortgage rates may increase the level of homebuying this spring. The national median home price is $375,000. The annual income required to afford a median-priced home is $83,400.
The five hottest markets in the country during the past year include Syracuse, New York, where prices rose 9.7% year over year, but were down 0.3% between October and January. Bridgeton, Connecticut, was next, up 9.6% since January 2024, and up 3.4% between October and January. Rochester, New York, came in third, up 9.1% for the year, but down 3.1% between October and January.
Markets with a more than 70% chance of home price declines include Winter Haven, Florida; Phoenix; Tampa; Tucson; and West Palm Beach.
The markets where prices have fallen the most in the past year include Fort Myers, Florida, down 3.9% in the past year and down 1.2% between October and January; Sarasota, Florida, down 2.7% year over year, but up 0.1% between October and January; and San Francisco, which is down 1.1% in the past year and also down a painful 4.7% between October and January.
“Flattening home price changes over the last six months suggest further price deceleration is ahead,” said Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic. “While this year’s cold winter and large natural disasters play a role in dampening demand, falling consumer sentiment suggests potential homebuyers are wary of the short-term economic outlook and future inflation. Nevertheless, with the spring homebuying season upon us, the recent improvements in mortgage rates may help invite homebuyers back into the market.”
