Tariffs have dominated the news cycle since President Donald Trump announced globe-spanning levies on imports on April 2, then changed course several times. Amid the Trump administration’s shifting trade policies, much of the discourse has centered on the national economic ramifications of escalating tensions between the U.S. and its trading partners, with less focus on the state level.
A report released Monday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) looks at the importing and exporting activities of individual states, highlighting which states are most vulnerable to U.S. tariffs on imports or other countries’ retaliatory tariffs on American exports.
According to NAR, Kentucky relies the most on imports, with 32.3% of its gross domestic product (GDP) coming from imported goods. The Bluegrass State, which is a major player in the automotive industry, counts Mexico, Japan and Taiwan among its top import partners, according to NAR.
Two other auto manufacturing hubs, Michigan and Indiana, also rely heavily on imports. According to NAR, imports account for 24.5% of Michigan’s GDP and 20.2% of Indiana’s. By contrast, the rural heartland states of South Dakota and Nebraska are the least reliant on imported goods, with respective import-to-GDP ratios of 2.2% and 3.2%.
In terms of exports, Louisiana leads all states, with exports comprising 26.5% of the state’s GDP, according to NAR. The Pelican State, which is a heavy exporter of petroleum and chemical products, is particularly vulnerable to China’s 125% tariffs on U.S. goods. In 2024, Louisiana exported $10.2 billion in goods to China, according to federal data.
NAR also reported that the oil and gas hub of Texas is heavily reliant on exports, with an export-to-GDP ratio of 16.8%. And Kentucky is an active exporter — particularly in the aerospace products and parts industry — with 16.3% of its GDP coming from exported goods, per the NAR report.
Housing market impacts
NAR looked at historical data from 1994 to 2024, finding that home prices increased more rapidly in states that were less reliant on trade, as these states typically have more stable employment and stronger job growth.
In particular, states with lower exports as a percentage of GDP generally saw more significant appreciation in home prices. That includes Florida (406% average home price rise from 1994 to 2024), California (382%), Washington (379%) and Colorado (377%).
While California was the second-largest exporter of trade goods in 2024 among U.S. states, exports accounted for just 4.5% of its total GDP, with real estate, finance and tech-based professional and information services comprising the largest components of the state’s economy. Likewise, Florida’s export-to-GDP ratio was 4.2% in 2024, Washington’s was 6.8% and Colorado’s was 1.9%.
“The states that led in home price growth were often those with rapid job growth in tech and services, high levels of domestic migration and limited housing supply or zoning constraints,” the NAR report stated. “Meanwhile, states with smaller export shares are less vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions and often attract knowledge economy jobs or retirees, boosting housing demand in urban and suburban areas.”
