With climate change comes climate risk, particularly in coastal areas prone to flooding. By 2050, approximately 1.4 million homes are at risk of severe coastal flooding, according to a report released last week by the nonprofit climate news organization Climate Central.
Climate Central defines severe flooding as a coastal flood that has a 1% chance of occurring in a given year, known colloquially as a “100-year flood.” The group’s projections assume that pledged global commitments to reduce carbon footprints are met and sea levels rise consistent with a pollution pathway outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The report reveals that Florida, New Jersey, New York and Louisiana have the most homes at risk of severe flooding. Florida, with its high number of retirees, has 143,000 people 65 or older living in severe flood risk areas — the most of any state.
Among leading at-risk cities, New York City has an estimated 271,000 residents at risk, followed by Boston with 85,000 people in danger of severe coastal flooding, according to Climate Central.
On a percentage basis, Houma, La., leads all cities in flood risk. The Louisiana city of around 33,000 residents, located about 60 miles southwest of New Orleans, has 100% of its population at risk of a severe flood by 2050.
Climate risk has become an increasingly salient part of the homebuying calculus. Last fall, Zillow introduced climate risk data from First Street to its for-sale home listings. Realtor.com added climate risk scores to its home listings in March 2024, while Redfin premiered its ClimateCheck tool in 2021 that provides location-based climate risk ranges.
Zillow’s rollout of its climate risk scoring cited a 2023 study indicating that 83% of prospective buyers consider climate risk when looking for a home. Of those home shoppers, 41% said they considered flood risk — the highest percentage among types of climate risk.
Last month, Zillow estimated that the combined value of U.S. homes at risk of flooding totals $7 trillion.
To help prospective and existing homeowners assess the risks of coastal flooding, Climate Central created a coastal risk finder tool. The interactive tool lets users search coastal locations and access data on the projected impacts of climate change and risk mitigation strategies.
