Yesterday afternoon’s tariff announcement sent financial markets on a ride that ultimately resulted in sharply lower stock prices and moderately lower bond yields. Stocks don’t always correlate with bond yields, but that has been a common pattern since late February.
The correlation between bond yields and mortgage rates, on the other hand, is perpetual and nearly flawless. After all, “yield” is just another word for “rate.” Additionally, mortgage rates are based on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) which are basically bonds.
All that to say: rates have been benefitting from the market chaos that’s been hurting stocks, and stocks got hurt quite a bit over the past 24 hours. Considering the average 30yr fixed rate was already close to its lowest levels since mid October yesterday, it’s no surprise to see an official breakout today.
Tariffs and stock market volatility are not the only games in town for rates. Economic data is also very important and tomorrow’s jobs report is typically the most important economic report of any given month. Depending on the results, it could help rates move even lower or bounce back up into the recent range.
